The three big bills of the day include one for sports betting, one for online gambling and poker, and one for daily fantasy sports. Lawful Sports Betting Act HB 4916 approves retail sportsbooks at Michigan casinos and online betting. Online Sportsbook - Live Online Betting Odds & Lines Sportsbook is your source for the best in sports betting entertainment. You'll find the widest variety of bets and odds in every sport imaginable including Major League Baseball, soccer, CFL football betting, NASCAR auto racing, tennis, golf, boxing, MMA and all of the NFL preseason, NFL regular season and Super bowl LIV action.
Whether gamblers can have more success in online poker or online sports betting is an age old question that players have been asking themselves since the games existed. While both are certainly beatable for players who understand each for, there are some essential differences and factors to consider when players contemplate their profit potential in both forms of “gambling”.
Although theoretically not considered ‘gambling’ when the chance is not 50/50, ever. Look at any earnings tracker and the same guys will be up there at Pokerstars. Every year the same poker players will make about $300-500 grand a year based solely on math.
Bankroll Management and Profit Potential
More important than being able to define your edges, find market inefficiencies, or having the skill to beat inferior players is keeping strict bankroll requirements. Too many great or potentially talented poker players and sports bettors have gone broke due to lack of bankroll discipline.
For poker players, bankroll requirements vary depending on the stakes and games you play. Requirements depend on whether your chosen game is cash, multi-table tournaments or sit n’ go tournaments.
For example, for cash game players, it is recommended that they have at least 40 buy-ins based on their stake level. For a $1/$2 No Limit Hold’em game, this means players should have an $8,000 bankroll.
Even at low stakes, a player could do extremely well for themselves. They could make $60,000 a year, or more depending on their win rate and amount of tables they play.
Bankroll requirements for sports betting are around one or two percent of your total bankroll on each bet. The amount bettors utilize varies, but players have a serious risk of ruin when wagering more than five percent of their bankroll on a single wager.
The goal for sports bettors is to at least break even. The breakeven percentage for winning at sports is 52.4 percent, but if bettors can win 55 percent of their wagers, they can make themselves an excellent living betting sports.
However, since sports betting bankroll requirements are so stringent, the old adage of “you need money, to make money” rings true in a significant way. If I flat bet my wagers at 1% of bankroll of $10,000, my standard bet size would be $110 to win $100.
Over 1,000 bets, a 55 percent winning percentage works out to 550 wins and 450 losses. On our wins, we’ll profit $55,000, but on our losses, we’ll lose $49,500. That’s a net profit of $5,500.
This is nothing to scoff at, as beating sports betting for any amount of money is an accomplishment, but let’s look at how much time and effort this took on our part. A thousand wagers can be accomplished in less than a year’s time, but it will force players to be able to handicap a number of sports besides the favorite of most bettors, the NFL.
Let’s also factor in that sports betting is not easy, and it takes time handicap games each and every day, usually hours of work. We’ve made $5,500 but how much time did we put into doing so?
A considerable amount of time compared to the amount of time it would take to make $5,500 from playing poker, even at low limits. $5,500 could be eclipsed in one month of profitable poker at $1/$2. Our $10,000 bankroll would serve us just fine in poker as well, and as long as we are productive poker players, it allows us to earn a much larger amount annually.
This isn’t to say that sports betting isn’t hugely profitable for some, but those with smaller bankrolls who are looking to make more money faster may want to focus their attention on poker.
Making six figures per year from sports betting likely requires a bankroll of around $200,000 using our above bankroll requirements. Doing so via online poker can be done with a fraction of this number.
I’m not trying to scare anyone away from sports betting nor enticing them to focus on poker instead. Instead, I’m giving an estimate on earning potential that correlates to available bankroll. The potential to earn more with less certainly is an advantage that is won by poker.
With that said, it would be crazy to take hundreds of thousands of dollars and begin to learn sports betting by betting $1,000 a game or more. That’s why there’s a need to learn sports betting by wagering smaller amounts and moving your way up.
Although $100 a game bettors won’t make much early on, they are also learning handicapping techniques. Think of it as on the job training. The goal of a sports bettor is to find inefficiencies in markets while improving your handicapping prowess and increasing your bet size. Building up your bankroll from the start will give you plenty of time to improve on your methods and give you a firm idea of your ability as a sports bettor.
Bonuses
This is another area where poker has a noticeable edge, especially for those who are looking to build a bankroll early in their careers. Deposit bonuses and reload bonuses are usually much larger and more frequent at online poker sites, rather than online sportsbooks. Sportsbooks offer “free bet” or “freeplay” bonuses, but these are rarely as lucrative.
It’s common for first-deposit poker bonuses to be $500-$1000 or more, and while these take a long time to clear, they are hugely beneficial to players. The site may also offer regular reload bonuses and some sort of VIP program or rakeback. Depending on the site, these programs can potentially be worth hundreds or thousands of extra dollars per month.
This usually isn’t the case with online sportsbooks. It is quite rare to have a freeplay deposit offer for more than $500, and the attached rollover rates take down their value a bit. Some books will offer VIP programs, but usually aren’t worth much.
For sports bettors, the best rewards usually come from reduced juice markets or competitive pricing. Reduced juice trumps a freeplay or deposit bonus by a large margin. Bettors can save thousands or hundreds of thousands of betting fees over the life of their account by betting with pricing better than -110.
Moving Up in Stakes/Levels
Poker and sports betting differ considerably when it comes to moving up in levels or increasing your bet size and stakes.
As a sports bettor, you’re already going to be line shopping for the best possible price. Once you increase your bet amount, getting more money on a market is going to be a matter of finding ways to get the most money down on the best line. While this certainly gets harder as your bet amount increases, the skill or handicapping ability needed to beat the sportsbooks does not.
This is not the case with poker. When players move up in stakes, they face a large selection of new opponents and tougher opposition. Even though the rules of the game don’t change, the skill of the players at higher limits can be substantially different.
While scaling up for sports betting is just a matter of getting larger amounts on the best odds, poker players may have to make changes to their style of play or revamp it altogether. The jump can be especially hard when moving from the middle limits up to higher stakes. There are some fast poker tips out there to support your poker education.
However, one aspect that poker players rarely have to deal with is being limited or banned. Some online poker rooms have taken measures in recent years to segregate their most successful players from their fish or limit the amount of tables they can play.
These instances used to be rather rare, but are becoming more common for big winners. Still, it’s relatively minor compared what winning sports bettors face once an online sportsbook has decided that they have taken too much from them.
Many online sportsbooks, especially US-facing outfits, are solely recreational outfits, meaning that they will limit or outright ban players who show even the slightest ability to handicap sports profitability.
Of course, there’s plenty of sites that give players a longer leash and a few that will almost never ban or limit a player. However, once you have become a successful sports bettor who is wagering in four or five figures on contests, it may become a challenge to get large amounts of money down on the best line.
Contrast to this to poker, where in most cases, players can win as much as possible and suffer no interference from management. Whereas, sportsbooks are forced to act because they can go under if they’re hit heavily by sharp action and are getting beat for big money.
While the poker ecosystem is affected by players who win a lot and knock the fish out of action, the damage is marginal compared to a sports bettor who is recognizing inefficiencies in betting markets. Most online bookmakers have a short leash for continuing to take sharp action that is costing them money.
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In Conclusion
This article may seem like it’s slightly slanted in favor of poker, especially for newer gamblers who are starting off small. While it’s true that a skilled poker player can make more money with a smaller bankroll than a sports bettor, that shouldn’t scare gamblers away from sports betting.
Bettors will just need a lot more bankroll, to make, say, $50,000 a year from betting sports. This can be done via poker with a lot less in reserve. With that said, my best advice to players who are interested in beating both sports and poker is to learn both simultaneously.
Most serious players use several gambling sites, and in today’s market, nearly every online poker room has a sportsbook, and nearly every online sportsbook has a poker room. Line shopping will be essential, but players should be able to get some excellent betting odds and will be able to game select brilliantly across several sites for poker.
Most importantly, treat both poker and sports seriously. Neither of these avenues are get rich quick schemes, they take hard work and dedication. There’s a reason the online gambling industry is worth tens of billions – most people lose.
Author: Joseph Falchetti
Anyone who has followed California’s futile efforts over the years to legalize online poker knows not to get their hopes up. It only ever results in disappointment.
But while online poker has turned into a busted flush (more on that later), perhaps regulated sports betting stands a better chance of becoming a reality.
If the Golden State did give the green light to sports wagering, it would be the biggest domino to fall since PASPA’s repeal last year.
Besides boasting a population of almost 40 million, California is also the country’s wealthiest state. In fact, if it were a country in its own right, its $3 trillion economy would be the fifth-largest in the world.
Furthermore, sports-loving California is home to 19 major professional sports teams, easily eclipsing any other state.
Jennifer Roberts,associate director of the International Center for Gaming Regulation at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas, said, “California is certainly an attractive state for regulated sports betting because of the size of the population and the number of college and professional sports teams.”
These factors alone clearly indicate California would be a mammoth market if state-sanctioned sports betting was permitted.
Boutique analyst firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming forecasts that California could generate as much as $2.1 billion in annual taxable revenue from legal sports betting. That’s if the legislation includes mobile wagering.
By comparison, NewJersey generated $200 million in revenue from nearly $3 billion in bets in the 12 months following sports betting’s launch in June 2018.
California’s gambling stakeholders
Certainly, achieving legalized sports betting won’t be easy, though, especially as various parties have skin in the game. CA’s key stakeholders in gambling are:
- The tribes
- The card rooms
- Horse racetracks
- The CA Lottery
There are more than 60 tribal casinos throughout California. The dominant tribes are controlling gaming in the state, an industry worth around $8 billion in revenue a year.
When it comes to sports betting, the tribes are opposed to having to reopen their agreements with the state. They are also against splitting the gambling market with the likes of the tracks and the card rooms.
As well as casinos, more than 70 legal card rooms of varying sizes are in California. However, individual rooms offer player-banked versions of casino games, like blackjack and baccarat.
This means players take turns to assume the role of the house, and the card room takes a cut of the action. This shrewd workaround of the law led to tensions with the tribes for years and was the subject of a recent lawsuit.
However, a trio of tribes lost the case in federal court in the summer.
Is California wagering ‘a zero-sum game’?
While the resolution to this dispute gives the prospect of sports betting and online poker a slight boost, we are still a long way off the main stakeholders seeing eye to eye.
RichardSchuetz, who spent four years as commissioner for the California Gambling Control Commission, said, “The three industrial actors (tribal casinos, card rooms and tracks) basically treat any expansion of wagering as a zero-sum game.
“That is, if one benefits, it hurts the others. And then there is always a challenge as to what the constitution and the tribal compacts allow, and that often becomes confused by the different actors.”
Meanwhile, Roberts said, “The addition of a new form of gambling raises complicated questions, such as who will be allowed to offer it: state lottery, card rooms or tribes. And whether it impacts any exclusivity, compacts or authorized forms of gambling.
“I don’t see (legislation) going anywhere until these key stakeholders can come to an agreement.”
What needs to happen for California sports betting to pass?
For sports betting to become a reality, California needs to pass a constitutional amendment.
The first step to kickstart that process began in June. For the second year running, AssemblymanAdamGray and state Sen. Bill Dodd introduced an amendment in their respective chambers.
Legislative rules mean bills with tax implications need a two-thirds majority to pass in both the Assembly and the Senate. California voters also have to give the green light to the amendment by a straightforward majority.
The earliest an amendment could be put on the ballot would be in November 2020. Issues relating to the cost of licenses, tax rates and who could offer sports betting would be decided later.
That means we would likely be looking at sports betting launching in California in late 2021 at the earliest.
That would be three-and-a-half years after PASPA’s repeal. And even then, it would also probably be restricted to land-based venues, at least at first.
However, Jim Ryan, CEO of the online arm of California’s Pala Band of Mission Indians, which is behind PalaCasino.com in New Jersey, remains skeptical.
“There needs to be a constitutional amendment, which the residents of California need to vote on in a ballot. I just don’t see the will to do that at this point in time based on the discussions we have had with the various tribes in the state.”
Schuetz is equally pessimistic about progress in 2020. “My guess is you will see some lobbyists, lawyers and legislators make money by making some noise about sports wagering, but at the end of the day, nothing will pass. It will mainly just be a dance that seems to happen year after year after year.”
But what about California online poker?
Efforts to legalize online poker in California have been going on for more than a decade.
Alas, lawmakers have failed to pass a bill in all those years, while key stakeholders struggled to agree on the framework for online poker.
Although no constitutional amendment is required, there still needs to be a two-thirds majority for it to be given the go-ahead. However, hopes are fading for Californians ever being able to play regulated online poker.
“I would make online poker a huge underdog for legalization in 2020,” Schuetz said. “It is an election year, and the conventional wisdom is that this is never a good time to make an effort to pass gambling-related legislation.
“Moreover, there just isn’t much energy behind poker anymore, partially because it has been upstaged by sports wagering. And, secondly, because it has been something of a non-event where it is legal.”
That non-event he referred to is poker’s struggling fortunes in other states. In the only meaningful US market where regulated online poker exists, New Jersey, revenues continue to disappoint.
The Garden State’s poker sites generated revenue of $1.7 million in August, which was down 9.5% on a year earlier. Poker was dwarfed by online casino’s revenue of $39.4 million for the same month, meaning poker accounted for a paltry 4.1% of total gaming revenue.
The right ingredients for California online poker to thrive
What California isn’t lacking is liquidity to make a success of online poker. To illustrate this point, the state’s population is more than four times greater than New Jersey’s.
There is also a real appetite for the game, backed up by the vibrant land-based poker scene. California was even thought to be one of the world’s largest online poker markets before Black Friday in 2011.
California’s population likely has an appetite to sustain three or four large poker sites. And that’s even without compacting with other states to increase player pools.
But despite all this, Ryan said the wrangling and subsequent impasse has all but killed poker’s chances.
“I think everybody got exhausted by it, and I just don’t think anybody has the will to try to make poker happen. Right now, if anything is going to happen, people will be focused on sports betting.
“I think it is a larger market opportunity and is a product that doesn’t exist. Many of the tribal casinos would welcome that in their properties, whereas poker does exist in a land-based environment today.”
Using online poker to acquire players
Regulated online operators in markets like New Jersey and the UK use poker as a low-cost customer acquisition tool and cross-sell players into casino and sports betting.
But there won’t be online casinos, and possibly not online sportsbooks, in California. Without these other products, online poker loses much of its appeal from a revenue generation standpoint.
Summing up online poker’s chances, Schuetz sounds even more downbeat than Ryan.
“From all of my experience in California, I would be startled if online poker ever became a reality in the state.
“Back when I was in the middle of this debate, the operators would say there are millions and millions of dollars to be made. But in a state the size of California, it was basically budget dust. It is just too contentious between the different industrial actors and not enough money in it for the state to take much of an interest.”
A gloomy outlook for sports betting, poker in California
In conclusion, things don’t look too good for the prospect of sports betting, and especially online poker.
While sports betting does appear to have the greatest chance of being legalized, much rests with the politically influential tribes. They hold all the aces.
So, it’s a frustrating wait if you’re a Californian who is itching to play regulated online poker or place a legal sports wager in a regulated environment.
H2 Gambling Capital estimates that Californians gamble around $200 million a year on offshore casino and poker sites. The research firm suggests another $200 million is bet annually with offshore sportsbooks.
That’s hundreds of millions of dollars bettors are wagering via unregulated channels and the state is missing out on taxes.
Ryan said, “If the government is unwilling to present them with a regulated product, they are simply betting with offshore books. All you need to do is go to a sporting event in California and you will see a number of people around you betting on their mobile devices.
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“The horse has already left the barn, but the question is, do you want to regulate it, tax it, create jobs and protect the consumers? That is what state governors need to wrap their heads around.”
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We say, don’t hold your breath.